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By 2040, the energy demands of the tech industry could be up to 25 times higher than today, with unchecked growth of data centres driven by AI expected to create surges in electricity consumption that will strain power grids and accelerate carbon emissions.  

This is according to a new report from the University of Cambridge’s Minderoo Centre for Technology and Democracy, which suggests that even the most conservative estimate for big tech’s energy needs will see a five-fold increase over the next 15 years. 

The idea that governments such as the UK can become leaders in AI while simultaneously meeting their net zero targets amounts to “magical thinking at the highest levels,” according to the report’s authors. The UK is committed to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

Researchers call for global standards in reporting AI’s environmental cost through forums such as COP, the UN climate summit, and argue that the UK should advocate for this on the international stage while ensuring democratic oversight at home.

The report, published today, synthesises projections from leading consultancies to forecast the energy demands of the global tech industry. The researchers note that these projections are based on claims by tech firms themselves. 

At the moment, data centres – the facilities that house servers for processing and storing data, along with cooling systems preventing this hardware from overheating – account for nearly 1.5% of global emissions.

This figure is expected to grow by 15-30% each year to reach 8% of total global greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, write the report’s authors. They point out that this would far exceed current emissions from air travel. 

The report highlights that in the US, China, and Europe, data centres already consume around 2-4% of national electricity, with regional concentrations becoming extreme. For example, up to 20% of all power in Ireland now goes to data centres in Dublin’s cluster.

“We know the environmental impact of AI will be formidable, but tech giants are deliberately vague about the energy requirements implicit in their aims,” said Bhargav Srinivasa Desikan, the report’s lead author from Cambridge’s Minderoo Centre.

“The lack of hard data on electricity and water consumption as well as associated carbon emissions of digital technology leaves policymakers and researchers in the dark about the climate harms AI might cause.”

“We need to see urgent action from governments to prevent AI from derailing climate goals, not just deferring to tech companies on the promise of economic growth,” said Desikan.

The researchers also use data from corporate press releases and ESG reports of some of the world’s tech giants to show the alarming trajectory of energy use before the AI race had fully kicked into gear.

Google’s reported greenhouse gas emissions rose by 48% between 2019 and 2023, while Microsoft’s reported emissions increased by nearly 30% from 2020 to 2023. Amazon’s carbon footprint grew around 40% between 2019 and 2021, and – while it has begun to fall – remains well above 2019 levels.

This self-reported data is contested, note the researchers, and some independent reporting suggests that actual emissions from tech companies are much higher.  

Several tech giants are looking to nuclear power to defuse the energy timebomb at the heart of their ambitions. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, has argued that fusion is needed to meet AI’s potential, while Meta have said that nuclear energy can “provide firm, baseload power” to supply their data centres.

Microsoft have even signed a 20-year agreement to reactivate the Three Mile Island plant – site of the worst nuclear accident in US history.

Some tech leaders, such as former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, argue that environmental costs of AI will be offset by its benefits for the climate crisis – from contributing to scientific breakthroughs in green energy to enhanced climate change modelling.

“Despite the rapacious energy demands of AI, tech companies encourage governments to see these technologies as accelerators for the green transition,” said Prof Gina Neff, Executive Director of the Minderoo Centre for Technology and Democracy.

“These claims appeal to governments banking on AI to grow the economy, but they may compromise society's climate commitments.”

“Big Tech is blowing past their own climate goals, while they rely heavily on renewable energy certificates and carbon offsets rather than reducing their emissions,” said Prof Neff.

“Generative AI may be helpful for designing climate solutions, but there is a real risk that emissions from the AI build-out will outstrip any climate gains as tech companies abandon net zero goals and pursue huge AI-driven profits.”

The report calls for the UK’s environmental policies to be updated for the “AI era”. Recommendations include adding AI’s energy footprint into national decarbonisation plans, with specific carbon reduction targets for data centres and AI services, and requirements for detailed reporting of energy and water consumption.  

Ofgem should set strict energy efficiency targets for data centres, write the report’s authors, while the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero and the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology should tie AI research funding and data centre operations to clean power adoption.

The report’s authors note that that UK’s new AI Energy Council currently consists entirely of energy bodies and tech companies – with no representation for communities, climate groups or civil society.  

“Energy grids are already stretched,” said Prof John Naughton, Chair of the Advisory Board at the Minderoo Centre for Technology and Democracy.

“Every megawatt allocated to AI data centres will be a megawatt unavailable for housing or manufacturing. Governments need to be straight with the public about the inevitable energy trade-offs that will come with doubling down on AI as an engine of economic growth.”
 

With countries such as the UK declaring ambitious goals for both AI leadership and decarbonisation, a new report suggests that AI could drive a 25-fold increase in the global tech sector’s energy use by 2040.

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The successful Cambridge grantees’ work covers a range of research areas, including the development of next-generation semiconductors, new methods to identify dyslexia in young children, how diseases spread between humans and animals, and the early changes that happen in cells before breast cancer develops, with the goal of finding ways to stop the disease before it starts.

The funding, worth €721 million in total, will go to 281 leading researchers across Europe. The Advanced Grant competition is one of the most prestigious and competitive funding schemes in the EU and associated countries, including the UK. It gives senior researchers the opportunity to pursue ambitious, curiosity-driven projects that could lead to major scientific breakthroughs. Advanced Grants may be awarded up to € 2.5 million for a period of five years. The grants are part of the EU’s Horizon Europe programme. The UK agreed a deal to associate to Horizon Europe in September 2023.

This competition attracted 2,534 proposals, which were reviewed by panels of internationally renowned researchers. Over 11% of proposals were selected for funding. Estimates show that the grants will create approximately 2,700 jobs in the teams of new grantees. The new grantees will be based at universities and research centres in 23 EU Member States and associated countries, notably in the UK (56 grants), Germany (35), Italy (25), the Netherlands (24), and France (23).

“Many congratulations to our Cambridge colleagues on these prestigious ERC funding awards,” said Professor Sir John Aston, Cambridge’s Pro-Vice-Chancellor for Research. “This type of long-term funding is invaluable, allowing senior researchers the time and space to develop potential solutions for some of biggest challenges we face. We are so fortunate at Cambridge to have so many world-leading researchers across a range of disciplines, and I look forward to seeing the outcomes of their work.”

The Cambridge recipients of 2025 Advanced Grants are:

Professor Clare Bryant (Department of Veterinary Medicine) for investigating human and avian pattern recognition receptor activation of cell death pathways, and the impact on the host inflammatory response to zoonotic infections.

Professor Sir Richard Friend (Cavendish Laboratory/St John’s College) for bright high-spin molecular semiconductors.

Professor Usha Goswami (Department of Psychology/St John’s College) for a cross-language approach to the early identification of dyslexia and developmental language disorder using speech production measures with children.

Professor Regina Grafe (Faculty of History) for colonial credit and financial diversity in the Global South: Spanish America 1600-1820.

Professor Judy Hirst (MRC Mitochondrial Biology Unit/Corpus Christi College) for the energy-converting mechanism of a modular biomachine: Uniting structure and function to establish the engineering principles of respiratory complex I.

Professor Matthew Juniper (Department of Engineering/Trinity College) for adjoint-accelerated inference and optimisation methods.

Professor Walid Khaled (Department of Pharmacology/Magdalene College) for understanding precancerous changes in breast cancer for the development of therapeutic interceptions.

Professor Adrian Liston (Department of Pathology/St Catharine’s College) for dissecting the code for regulatory T cell entry into the tissues and differentiation into tissue-resident cells.

Professor Róisín Owens (Department of Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology/Newnham College) for conformal organic devices for electronic brain-gut readout and characterisation.

Professor Emma Rawlins (Department of Physiology, Development and Neuroscience/Gurdon Institute) for reprogramming lung epithelial cell lineages for regeneration.

Dr Marta Zlatic (Department of Zoology/Trinity College) for discovering the circuit and molecular basis of inter-strain and inter-species differences in learning

“These ERC grants are our commitment to making Europe the world’s hub for excellent research,” said Ekaterina Zaharieva, European Commissioner for Startups, Research, and Innovation. “By supporting projects that have the potential to redefine whole fields, we are not just investing in science but in the future prosperity and resilience of our continent. In the next competition rounds, scientists moving to Europe will receive even greater support in setting up their labs and research teams here. This is part of our “Choose Europe for Science” initiative, designed to attract and retain the world’s top scientists.”

“Much of this pioneering research will contribute to solving some of the most pressing challenges we face - social, economic and environmental,” said Professor Maria Leptin, President of the European Research Council. “Yet again, many scientists - around 260 - with ground-breaking ideas were rated as excellent, but remained unfunded due to a lack of funds at the ERC. We hope that more funding will be available in the future to support even more creative researchers in pursuing their scientific curiosity.”

Eleven senior researchers at the University of Cambridge have been awarded Advanced Grants from the European Research Council – the highest number of grants awarded to any institution in this latest funding round.

The text in this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Images, including our videos, are Copyright ©University of Cambridge and licensors/contributors as identified. All rights reserved. We make our image and video content available in a number of ways – on our main website under its Terms and conditions, and on a range of channels including social media that permit your use and sharing of our content under their respective Terms.